Published (in Norwegian) in Sysla Grønn, 2/2 2017. The new US president has spent his first days in the White House fulfilling a number of controversial campaign promises. President Trump has also promised to “cancel” the Paris Agreement and cut all American contributions to UN climate programmes, but he’s not made it that far down his “to do” list. Yet. In a winter of meagre snow, you can feel the gloom spreading. Fortunately, those of us focused on green technology and climate change know that certain important trends have so much momentum – both globally and in Norway ­– that pessimism need not prevail. Here are five reasons for green optimism:

1. Renewable energy is consolidating its position as the leading source of new power generation globally

It’s true that renewable energy investments fell by 18 per cent from 2015 to 2016, according to research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance. But the volume of newly installed capacity hit a record high. We’re getting more solar and wind energy for our money. The year 2016 saw new price records, with solar and wind energy farms  supply electricity for less than 27 øre/kWh. There is little to suggest President Trump or other forces can reverse the trend. Increasingly competitive renewable technologies will continue to gain market share in global power production at the expense of fossil alternatives. The energy sector, which accounts for 25 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, is becoming greener. The transport sector is grey.

2. But a global breakthrough for electric vehicles is close

In recent months we have seen launches of the Tesla Model 3 and Opel’s Ampera-e, the first mass-market models with a range of up to 500 km. The 54% global increase in electric vehicle sales in 2016 and steadily falling battery costs tell us that long-term growth can be as hockey stick-ish as it has been for solar and wind energy: from almost zero 15-20 years ago to the prominent technology of today. It is still early days for electric cars, and forecasts vary. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projected recently that 200 million electric vehicles will cut 13 million barrels per day from oil demand by 2035. Last week the oil company BP published its own forecast of 100 million electric cars by 2035, or half of the Bloomberg estimate. Norway was the pioneer electric car country. Another climate technology where Norway has natural advantages has seen progress of late:

3. Offshore wind is growing up

This is an industry that has struggled with growing pains: cost overruns, immature technology and fickle framework conditions by the authorities in many countries. But remember: if offshore wind follows the same development track as offshore oil and gas, it will eventually be recognised that the former today is at the same industrial level that the latter was in the late 1970s. In fact, offshore wind might be on a fast track to adulthood. In 2016, several companies committed to building offshore wind farms that will supply power for as little as 45 øre/kWh, excluding network hook-up. Just 18 months ago such a cost level would have seemed pure fantasy. In Europe in 2016, investment decisions were announced for 11 new offshore wind power projects worth NOK 163 billion. That is a new record for offshore wind, and – to use a familiar perspective – about equal to today’s level of new investments in oil and gas production on the Norwegian shelf alone. Offshore wind growth prospects and optimism are perhaps greater than ever. Now let’s zoom in on Norway.

4. Land-based wind is finally starting to soar in this country (at least for a while)

Back in the previous millennium, in 1999, the Storting set a goal of producing 3 TWh of wind power by 2010. Elsewhere in the world, solar and wind energy have over-performed. Not in Norway. In 2015, annual production of wind power was still only 2.5 TWh. However: the surge is upon us. Construction has begun on a 1,000-MW wind energy project in Fosen – Europe’s largest. And last year saw investment decisions on several wind farms elsewhere in the country. We are catching the Swedes, who have led us 5-1 in the common green certificate market.

5. Norwegian export of renewable technologies and services is growing, too

Between 2014 and 2015 overseas sales grew by up to 30 per cent for Norwegian suppliers, according to surveys we undertook at Export Credit Norway. It is too early to get the companies’ 2016 figures, but when we do I think we will see additional growth, helped along by the exchange rate. All we have to do is keep going, for there is “room for improvement””, as the Americans would say. Environmental technology accounts for 9 per cent of Danish exports. In Norway, the figure is 2 to 3 per cent.